Russian Natural Gas: who really benefits from the sabotage NS1 and NS2 ?
Level 1 Physical Market
Main russian gas competitors delevering gaz to Europe benefit from the demise of NS1 and NS2: Qatar and US shale gas.
Level 2 Speculation
Russia is benefiting from a further panic in gas market prices.
Level 3 Strategy
Other pipelines that bring natural gas to Europe benefit from the demise of NS1 and NS2:
Norwegian subsea pipeline under the Baltic Sea, a new albeit small one, benefit from less competition of NS1&NS2.
Level 4 Paranoïa
Russia played with fire by occupating and dangerously manipulating nuclear power plants in Ukraine. Energy retaliation was needed.
In this case why Russia’s Yamal onshore pipeline, going through Belarus, under-utilised and ending in Poland and Germany was not sabotaged at the same time as NS1&NS2? Why Russian onshore Druzhba (Brotherhood) pipeline, going through Belarus and Ukraine to Eastern Europe and Germany was not sabotaged at the same time as NS1&NS2 or before during the Ukraine invasion ? Why sabotaging NS1&NS2 in the middle of the baltic and not closer to is starting point -Vyborg and Ust-Luga in Russia- or near by the shore in Greifswald Germany ?
Cumulating all these element, neither Qatar, Poland, Ukraine, Germany or Norway are suspect. One had capacity and real and longterm interest in sabotaging NS1 & NS2. As far as Ukraine invasion is concerned it is a good news that it was done.
Being defeated sometimes and the Kremlin changing its tenant, Russian energy exports to Europe may restart via Yamal and Brotherhood pipelines. This would be more subject than in the past under the goodwill of the countries through which pipes pass: Poland, Ukraine, … which will be good for peace…
Taking the conclusion of “The third fall of the House of Russia“:
“In the short term, the intensity of the Ukrainian resistance means that Russia has already lost the “liberating invasion” of Ukraine. No one expects it to win a destructive invasion.
In the longer term, after the revolution of 1917, thirty years after the break-up of the USSR, the battle of Kiev will have the unexpected effect of provoking a third implosion of the Russian house.
Its territory and natural resources will be heading towards a new collapse and fragmentation between its western and eastern neighbors, unless…“