Online 01/10/2022
Russian Natural Gas: who really benefits from the sabotage NS1 and NS2 ?
There are 4 levels to understand who had interest in organising sabotage of Nord Stream.
Level 1 Physical Market
Main russian gas competitors delevering gaz to Europe are benefiting from the demise of NS1 and NS2. That is to say mainly Qatar and US shale gas.
Level 2 Speculation
Russia is benefiting from a further panic in gas market prices.
Level 3 Strategy
Other pipelines that bring natural gas to Europe benefit from the demise of NS1 and NS2:
That is to say Norwegian subsea pipeline under the Baltic Sea, a new albeit small one.
Level 4 Paranoïa
Russia played with fire by occupating bombarding and dangerously manipulating nuclear power plants in Ukraine.
Therefore an energy retaliation against Russia was needed and sabotage of Nord Stream was the response to the nuclear threat againt the power plant of Zaporidja. Therefore is was rightly organise by the West.
Another point excluding a Russian initiative is the fact that others Russia’s onshore pipelines were not sabotaged at the same time as NS1&NS2:
- Yamal onshore pipeline, going through Belarus, under-utilised and ending in Poland and Germany was not sabotaged before or at the same time as NS1&NS2.
- Druzhba (Brotherhood) onshore pipeline, going through Belarus and Ukraine to Eastern Europe and Germany was not sabotaged before or at the same time as NS1&NS2 during the Ukraine invasion.
Beside if Russia did organise sabotage, why would Moscow do it in the middle of the baltic and not closer to is starting point -Vyborg and Ust-Luga in Russia- or near by the shore in Greifswald Germany ?
Conclusion
Cumulating all these element, in the West neither Qatar, Poland, Germany are suspect of Nord Stream sabotage. One only had both the strategic reason (retaliations on Zaporidja), the military capacity (subsea expertise) and real and longterm interest (marketing of shale natural gas).
As far as Ukraine invasion is concerned it was a good decision and a good news that it was done successfully.
Being defeated sometimes and the Kremlin changing its tenant, Russian energy exports to Europe may restart later via LNG or Yamal and Brotherhood pipelines. This would be more subject than in the past under the goodwill of the countries through which pipes pass: Poland, Ukraine, … which will be good for peace…
Taking the conclusion of “The third fall of the House of Russia“:
“In the short term, the intensity of the Ukrainian resistance means that Russia has already lost the “liberating invasion” of Ukraine. No one expects it to win a destructive invasion.
In the longer term, after the revolution of 1917, thirty years after the break-up of the USSR, the battle of Kiev will have the unexpected effect of provoking a third implosion of the Russian house.
Its territory and natural resources will be heading towards a new collapse and fragmentation between its western and eastern neighbors, unless…“