Dans l’air du temps. In the Mood

Russian Natural Gas: who really benefits from the sabotage NS1 and NS2 ?

Level 1 Physical Market
Main russian gas competitors delevering gaz to Europe benefit from the demise of NS1 and NS2: Qatar and US shale gas.

Level 2 Speculation
Russia is benefiting from a further panic in gas market prices.

Level 3 Strategy
Other pipelines that bring natural gas to Europe benefit from the demise of NS1 and NS2:

  • Russia’s Yamal onshore pipeline, going through Belarus, under-utilised and ends in Poland and Germany;
  • Russian onshore Druzhba (Brotherhood) pipeline, going through Belarus and Ukraine to Eastern Europe and Germany;
  • Norwegian subsea pipeline under the Baltic Sea, a new albeit small one;

Level 4 Paranoïa
Russia been defeated and the Kremlin changing its tenant, its energy exports to Europe may restart via Yamal and Brotherhood pipelines. This would be more subject than in the past under the goodwill of the countries through which pipes pass: Poland, Ukraine, … which is good for peace…

Neither Qatar, Poland, Ukraine, Germany or Norway are suspect of sabotage, they have no capability to do so.

Only one has a real and longterm interest in destroying NS1 & NS2.

Ursula von der Leyen souhaite 140 Mds € de contribution de la part des énergéticiens européens BFM 14/09/2022

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


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